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Debidatta Aurobinda Mahapatra has a doctoral degree from the McCormack Graduate School of Policy and Global Studies at the University of Massachusetts Boston, USA. His areas of interest include contemporary Asian politics, peacebuilding, and India. He was a Charles Wallace India Fellow at the Queen’s University at Belfast in 2010. He was a recipient of the Scholar of Peace Award (New Delhi, 2007) and the Kodikara Award (Colombo, 2010). His publications include Conflict Management in Kashmir (Cambridge University Press, 2018), Gandhi and the World (Lexington, 2018), and Conflict and Peace in Eurasia (Routledge, 2013). He is a Professor of Political Science at Florida State College at Jacksonville. LESS ... MORE
The theory of the string and the pearls in the Indian context argues that India’s geopolitical adversary China has used various tools to encircle India. The pearls are those pliant states which are under the firm control of Chinese influence, and the string is the line connecting all those pearls around India. The goal here is twofold: the pearls can be converted to military bases if the situation demands. And second, more obvious, to have geopolitical leverage over India.
In the past decade this theory gained more salience. Whether it was the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passing through Kashmir towards the Arabian Sea or Sri Lanka & infrastructure development projects with the Chinese support, all these indicated, as becoming increasingly clear with the recent developments, not mere economic collaboration, a larger plan. These states fail to pay Chinese debts, lose strategic autonomy and become subservient states.
The recent developments in Sri Lanka and Pakistan display multiple trends with two major ones: the increasing Chinese influence is countered by local resistance. The targeting of Chinese workers in Pakistan indicates local resistance. The Corridor that passes through Balochistan has received opposition from local people. The recent suicide bombing in Karachi University campus shows this trend. China has apparently realized the challenges emanating from the local people. Though there are no signs that China will readjust its goals or annul the project, it is increasingly becoming clear that China will face violent resistance to its ambitions from local people and militant groups.
Sri Lanka is in the news due its debt failure and massive protests throughout the country. The Rajapaksa brothers who were hailed as heroes some years ago have now fallen from grace. Some years ago, I was listening to a BBC interview of Gotabaya Rajapaksa who was then the defense secretary under the leadership of his brother, Mahinda. Gotabaya appeared genuine and he asserted well how Sri Lanka must protect territorial integrity and sovereignty, whatever the costs may be. It appeared that the post-LTTE Sri Lanka appeared to have come of age.
China entered the scene and cultivated Sri Lanka as a valued pearl. It developed Hambantota port and engaged in some other projects. The situation looked gaga in the beginning and Sri Lanka leadership appeared to cherish so much its newfound partner that it turned a cold shoulder towards its northern neighbor, India. Despite some of the bitter experiences of the past, it cannot be denied that both countries shared long historical and cultural relationships. Instead of learning from China’s policy in Africa, Sri Lankan leadership undervalued its relationship with India.
Now the economy is in tatters, and with massive unrest, the heroes of the past have become villains. Mahinda Rajapaksa was replaced by Ranil Wickremesinghe. In an address to the nation, the new prime minister brought to the public the grim situation: “At the moment, we only have petrol stocks for a single day. The next couple of months will be the most difficult ones of our lives.” He further said that the country does not have enough money to import essential goods.
In this volatile situation in the region, what are the options for India? Indian officials following prudence made it clear that it has no ambition to send troops to the neighbor. Instead of bringing the past rancor and ill will, it came forward to extend economic support. While China has a larger ambition to make Sri Lanka a client state, India made it clear that it has no such ambition.
By displaying friendship in action, India must bring to Sri Lanka the realization that it has no ulterior strategy except to help a friend in need. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs stated, “In keeping with our Neighbourhood First policy, India has extended this year alone support worth over USD 3.5 billion to the people of Sri Lanka for helping them overcome their current difficulties. In addition, the people of India have provided assistance for mitigating the shortages of essential items such as food and medicine.” According to the reports, India recently sent 12 shipments and over 400,000 tons of fuel to the island nation.
Pakistan will be a difficult nut to crack. As both the countries are engaged in some protracted conflicts, it may be difficult to convince the neighbor India’s friendly intentions. While it may take some time for China to realize the challenging nature of the CPEC project, Pakistan should realize the challenges and address them. It may be able to quell local unrest by resorting to force and killing local leaders, but the roots of discontent will continue to fester. Instead of spending energy and resources, it will be useful to cultivate peace with its people and India, its neighbor. Towards this goal, resolution of protracted conflicts like Kashmir, through which CPEC passes, will be important. Pakistan must realize that a peaceful resolution of these conflicts is possible only with the cooperation of India.
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Views expressed above are the author's own.
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